Market Analysis and Visitor Forecasts

Visitor forecast BUGA Wuppertal

Client: RMP Stephan Lenzen Landschaftsarchitekten | Year: 2018

During the planning of a Bundesgartenschau in the city of Wuppertal, Montenius Consult was asked to provide a visitor forecast. The number of visitors and the associated revenues from ticket sales are an essential part of the financing concept of every garden show. Therefore, a profound visitor forecast is of great importance. A multi-stage forecasting method specially developed by Christoph Schrahe was used. This considers the different target group segments separately and is based on extensive analyses of the number of visitors at past garden shows, which have shown, among other things, that the horticultural shows in metropolises tend to find it difficult to convert the population population into visits. However, this was only one of many aspects that were included in the forecast. On the December 17, 2018, the Wuppertal City Council decided to apply for the BUGA 2031 by a large majority. An approval by the Deutsche Bundesgartenschaugesellschaft is considered certain.

Visitor forecast ClimateXperience Almere/Netherlands

Client: ift GmbH | Year: 2018

Climate Education GmbH is planning an Edutainment Center on the subject of climate in Almere, a neighbouring city of Amsterdam. Montenius Consult was subcontracted by ift GmbH to develop a visitor forecast for this project. The basis for this was an extensive analysis of the Dutch tourism and leisure sector with a special focus on existing edutainment attractions and experience-oriented exhibitions, which were personally inspected during the course of the project. A specially developed method was used for the forecast calculation, which takes into account the fact that the success of a leisure attraction depends to a large extent on the position it has in the ranking of the visitor attractions at a particular location. Other specific experiences from the segment of themed exhibitions were also taken into account.

Regional economic impact analysis Rappbodetalsperre

Client: Harzdrenalin GmbH | Year: 2018

Harzdrenalin GmbH operates a megazipline and the Titan RT hanging rope bridge at the Rappbodetalsperre in the Harz. The company is currently considering expansion measures to improve the quality of the visitor experience at this extremely popular destination. As part of the approval process, Montenius Consult performed a regional economic impact analysis, which compared the effects of implementing the measures with those of maintaining the status quo. For this purpose, it was first necessary to estimate the development of the number of visitors for these two scenarios.

Project evaluation Flying World

Client: ift GmbH | Year: 2017

As part of the evaluation of a planned experience world on the subject of aviation as a subcontractor of ift Gmbh, it was particularly important to verify the expectations regarding the number of visitors through our own visitor forecast. In addition to an extensive benchmark analysis, the basis was a capacity analysis based on the existing planning of areas as well as an analysis of the existing location frequentation.

Profitability calculation Master Plan hiking and skiing area Hörnle Bad Kohlgrub

Client: Hörnle Schwebebahn GmbH & Co. Schlepplift KG | Year: 2017

As part of the profitability calculation for the reconstruction of the Hörnlebahn in Bad Kohlgrub in the Bavarian Alps, the forecast of future visitor numbers was of great importance. Based on the planned range of attractions, 14 customer segments were defined, whose potential was considered separately. The forecasts were also based on extensive analyses of the utilization of existing railways in the surrounding area. The increase in comfort associated with the planned cable car proved to be a decisive factor.

Visitor forecast IGA Ruhrgebiet

Client: ift GmbH | Year: 2017

In 2027, an international garden show with a decentralised concept will take place at several locations in the Ruhr area. Montenius Consult was subcontracted by ift GmbH to forecast the number of visitors to this horticultural mega event. As at the time of processing it was not yet clear which locations would ultimately become exhibition venues for the IGA, different variants were calculated. Their different levels of attractiveness as well as the distances between the locations were taken into account in the evaluation of the variants, where it was not only important to forecast the number of visitors, but also to anticipate their behaviour with regard to changes between the venues - as a basis for the traffic concept, which is of great importance in a conurbation like the Ruhr area that is not exactly low in traffic.

Profitability calculation reconstruction Turmbergbahn

Client: Verkehrsbetriebe Karlsruhe GmbH | Year: 2017/18

Within the scope of the economic feasibility calculation for the planned new construction of the Turmbergseilbahn, the main task was to estimate the effects of various possible new construction variants on the frequency of traffic on the new railway. The variants provided a more or less uninterrupted connection to the light rail network and also differed in terms of comfort, speed and accessibility. In addition, the question arose which capacity would be required to cope with the expected frequencies. Therefore, the visitor forecast was not only segmented according to 13 target groups, but also for nine periods of the year and 18 hourly intervals between 6 a.m. and midnight. As a result, the demand could be estimated in great detail.

Profitability calculation Master Plan Söllereck

Client: Oberstdorfer Bergbahn AG | Year: 2017/18

A key question in the profitability calculation for the Söllereck master plan, in the course of which the Oberstdorfer Bergbahn AG intends to invest EUR 42.9 million, was the impact of the measures on the usage of the lifts on Oberstdorf's local mountain. The forecast of the ski frequentation was of particular relevance, since the Oberstdorf-Kleinwalsertal ski pass is also valid in the Söllereck ski area and the revenues from the sale of this ski pass are categorised according to the number of rides. Since the Oberstdorfer Bergbahn AG also operates restaurants and paid parking lots and numerous guests purchase day tickets only for the Söllereck, the calculation of the expected future total number of guests and initial entries was, of course, also subject of the profitability calculation. The effects of the planned modernisation and extension of the gondola lift, which is operated all year round, on the summer business also had to be assessed.

Visitor forecast and study of potential regional economic impacts Gondola Schierke

Client: Bürger GmbH | Year: 2015 (ongoing)

After more than 15 years of planning the project of connecting the resort of Schierke located in the eastern Harz mountains to the Wurmberg, the largest ski area in the western Harz is now about to be implemented. A group of investors is to invest some 20 million Euros for the construction of a 10 passenger gondola from Schierke to the Winterberg mountain. Moreover the town of Wernigerode will invest 11 million Euros for necessary infrastructure. Because of the location of the project area in or on the Harz National Park and due to uncertain financing, this project was repeatedly delayed, although there was no doubt about the importance of the project for the development of the tourism industry in the region. How important the implementation would be has been analyzed in a study of the potential regional economic impacts carried out by Montenius Consult. The basis for the calculation of these effects was a forecast of the expected number of visitors and revenues both in winter and summer, also performed by Montenius Consult. The report issued on behalf of the investors supported the approval and financing process. Moreover Montenius Consult prepared a business plan including income statement, cash flow analysis and liquidity account. Currently, a feasibility study for the planned additional summer attractions is being worked on.

Profitability expansion Silbersattel ski area

Client: Town of Steinach/State of Thuringia | Year: 2015

The expansion of the Silbersattel ski area, the largest ski area in the Thuringian Forest, which has been planned since 2008, is finally scheduled to begin in 2016. Montenius Consult together with Klenkhart & Partner and the Schweiger Ingenieurbüro has developed an expansion concept. Based on the planned measures, Montenius Consult prepared a visitor prognosis and a profitability calculation. These serve as the basis for the authorisation of the financing by the municipal supervisory authority and the approval of the subsidies by the Thüringer Aufbaubank.

Market research Wintersport-Arena Sauerland

Client: Wintersport-Arena Sauerland e.V.
Year: 2012-2015

In recent years the winter sports arena Sauerland has been the German winter sports region with the highest investments into ski area infrastructure. For the 2013/13 season the news included the first detachable eight seater chair lift aft and the largest ski area in Germany - thanks to the interconnection of the Winterberg and Kappe ski areas by another new detachable chairlift. Just in time for the ski season a new quality initiative got started: the online-based visitor survey on the basis of the research and benchmarking tool QMF just recently developed by Montenius Consult. Initially, a total of eight ski areas in the Sauerland will measure customer satisfaction, identify guest needs and perform industry-wide benchmarking with the help of QMF. The latter is made possible by the simultaneous introduction of the QMF in other ski areas of the Central German Uplands.

Feasibility study Bergwelt Sophienhöhe

Client: RWE Power AG
Year: 2011/12

On behalf of RWE Power AG Montenius Consult examined the potential for settling commercial or recreational activities on the Sophienhoehe, the stockpile of Hambach opencast mine, which is the largest landscape structure in Germany with a height of over 200 m and an area of ​​22 square kilometers. Montenius Consult provided a concept from idea development through the rough concept to business planning including calculations of the expected costs and revenues. The basic idea is the use of gravity for a variety of recreational activities, from downhill biking or summer tobogganing, monster scooters, paragliding and zorbing to flights on the zip line - made ​​available through a central help to climb the pile plateau, preferably an eight seater gondola. Currently, the legal planning preparations for implementation are underway. For more information, inter alia an image film for the project, see www.bergwelt-sophienhoehe.de

Visitor and Revenue Forecast Hundseck ski area

Client: Bühlertallifte Hundseck GbR
Year: 2011

The Bühlertallift on Hundseck in the northern Black Forest is planning to build a snowmaking system, and furthermore the reactivation of the Hundsecklifte that ceased operation in 2010 and thus creating a connection between the two popular areas along the Black Forest Crest Highway. This would create a unique ski area in the northern Black Forest. For the first stage Montenius Consult carried out a visitor and revenue forecast used as the basis for financing the project. This was based on a simulation of the installation of snowmaking system, the expected snow conditions and the resulting possible number of operation days. The first stage was implemented for the 2012/13 season and proved to be very successful.

Visitor Forecast Rennsteig-Thermal Bath

Client: Town of Oberhof
Year: 2009

In early October 2008, the Rennsteigtherme in the Thuringian holiday village of Oberhof was closed down. During the last couple of years, various improvement and conversion plans were discussed. The town of Oberhof commissioned Montenius Consult with a visitor projection prognosis for the current remodelling concept.

Site evaluation for a hotel project in Söll

Client: Gamon & Partner Unternehmensberatung
Year:2009

Montenius Consult was commissioned to develop a location analysis for the Blue Vital Hotel, a four-star hotel in the Tyrolian village of Söll. The analysis included an evaluation of the supply and demand situation in Söll and the surrounding tourism regions of Wilder Kaiser as well as a study of the hotel market in Tyrolia.

Future concept and feasibility study for the ski slopes in Hellenthal/Eifel

Client: Gemeinde Hellenthal
Year: 2007/08

Assesment of development opportunities for the ski lifts by integrating existing infrastructure and additional activities to achieve a profitable economic result.

Master Plan Alpinsport Harz

Client: Harzer Verkehrsverband e.V., Germany
Year: 2003/2004

In the course of this project planning concepts for the ski areas of the Harz Mountains have been developed. They were based on the evaluation of the snowmaking potential with SnowPlan as well as on a sound analysis of the terrain potential that has been carried out with the aid of a Geographical Information System. Measures in the fields of snowmaking, infrastructure, services and marketing were defined. The identification of potential ecological conflicts as well as an analysis of the market potential and possible target groups for new offers also belonged to the scope of this project that has been supported by the Ministry of Economic Affairs of the state of Lower Saxony.

Feasibility Study winter sports offers Panorama-Park Sauerland

Client: Panorama-Park Sauerland GmbH, Germany
Year: 2003

Development of possible offers during wintertime (alpine skiing, snowboarding, tobogganing, tubing, snowshoeing, ice-skating, snow play area etc.) for the Panorama-Park Sauerland, a theme park on the ridge of the Rothaargebirge currently opened in summer only. The aim was to extend the park’s season. In the first stage the snowmaking potential was evaluated with the aid of SnowPlan. Moreover, a break-even-analysis taking into account the respective investments, operational and financing costs has been performed. The study also included recommendations concerning pricing, the services to be offered and a draft version of a marketing concept. As a result the feasibility was judged critically as the operators of the Panorama Park lacked specific know-how in the winter sports business.

Feasibility-Study SnowWave Hahnenklee

Client: Goslar Town Council, Germany
Year: 2002

A feasibility study for an indoor ski slope in the Harz Mountains: The project included a detailed survey among existing indoor ski facilities and a market and competition analysis in the area surrounding the potential location. Visitor forecasts for different scenarios were carried out and served as a basis for a projection of operational costs and possible revenues. The project turned out to be not feasible. Alternative strategies for developing winter sports tourism at Hahnenklee were proposed.

Master Plan Wintersport-Arena Sauerland Stage 2

Client: Tourist Board Sauerland, Brilon, Germany
Year: 2001-2002

Based on the results of the area’s regional development concept, measures for the improvement of the services in the central ski area of the Sauerland were developed. These included recommendations for snowmaking systems, lift and trail quality, network, general services, catering, accommodation, traffic guidance systems, ski rental, marketing, sales and quality management. For the Ministry of Economic Affairs, SME’s, Energy and Transport the findings were a basis for the allocation of subsidies for projects that improved the quality of the ski areas in the Sauerland. The aim was to establish the Sauerland as the leading ski area in Germany's low mountain ranges until 2006. Until the season of 2005/06 visitor numbers in the regions ski areas had already climbed from 300,000 to 1,000,000.

Spatial development concept Wintersport-Arena Sauerland

Client: Tourist Board Sauerland, Brilon, Germany
Year: 2000-2001

The Tourist Board of the Sauerland region, the Tourist Authority of North-Rhine-Westphalia and the West-German Skiing Association commissioned a detailed study of the winter sports infrastructure including a strength-weakness analysis, a demand analysis, a market potential study and an analysis of the economic impact of the ski tourism. Based on the findings, a development concept for the area's winter sports options and recommendations for future measures were developed. The project was subsidised by the Economic Ministery of North Rhine-Westphalia.

Feasibility Study snowmaking system Postwiese

Client: Postwiesen Ski Area, Neuastenberg, Germany
Year: 1999 (Monitoring consultancy until 2002)

Planning of a snowmaking system for the Postwiesen ski area Winterberg-Neuastenberg with SnowPlan. Due to a special climate situation it was important to determine the capacity of the snowmaking system exactly. Furthermore, the snowmaking coverage was aligned with the existing lift capacity which reduced the necessary investments considerably. Taking economic and regional aspects into account, it was proved that the project was economically viable. Afterwards the Postwiesen ski area successfully applied for government subsidies.

The installation of the snowmaking system in combination with a new electronic ticket system and a new grooming machine (total investment 1.8 million Euros) brought tremendous results: Whereas the 10-year average of operating days had decreased from 71 (1979-1988) to 32 days (1989-1998) before the installation, it increased to more than 90 days afterwards. Average daily visits increased from 250 to 625 and the turnover was increased by 800%.